The Auto Club 500
Brian Brown
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series stops at Auto Club Speedway's two-mile oval for the second race of the 2010 season, the Auto Club 500. Brian Brown took a look at past performances, season trends, and spoke with NASCAR contacts to predict how the field should finish on Sunday.
When: Sunday, February 21, 2010 at 3:19 p.m./et.
Weather: Sunny with a daytime high around 62; wind out of the ENE at 3 mph. There is a zero percent chance of precipitation.
The Track: Auto Club Speedway
ACS is a two-mile long D-shaped oval. It has intermediate (14 degree) banking on the corners which allows for drivers to run their cars nearly wide-open the entire way around the track.
Key to Race: RUN WITH THE BIG DOGS OR GO HOME
This is a race that used to be won or lost in the wind tunnel, but with today's car is not as dependent on aerodynamic packages as the car driven a few years ago driver skill plays a greater factor in winning or losing. Judging from the last few races at the track, Sunday should be very competitive with Roush-Fenway, Gibbs, and Hendrick bringing the cars to beat.
Qualifying Procedures:
46 cars will attempt to qualify for 43 spots. Cars not in the top 35 in the final 2009 owner's points will have to qualify based on speed. Starting positions 1-43 will be determined during qualifying on Friday, February 19 at 6:40 pm/et.
Fantasy Cheat Sheet:
Top 5
No. 48 Jimmie Johnson: It is tough not to pick the native Californian. Johnson has won three of the last five races at the track he considers his home turf.
No. 99 Carl Edwards: Edwards has finished seventh or better in 10 of his 11 Cup starts at Fontana. He won the February 2008 race at the track and is one of our favorites to win again this weekend.
No. 24 Jeff Gordon: Gordon has three career wins at Fontana and had one of the best cars on the track in last season's races. He is a great choice.
No. 18 Kyle Busch: Busch has finished in the top 10 in eight of the past nine races at Fontana. He is a great fantasy pick on Sunday.
No. 5 Mark Martin: Martin has eight top 10 finishes in 17 career starts at Fontana. He will be strong again.
6 to 10
No. 17 Matt Kenseth: Kenseth won last year's winter race for his third career win at the track. He should finish in the top 10 again this weekend, but we don't see another win.
No. 9 Kasey Kahne: Kahne has been great at Fontana during his career. He has seven top 10 finishes, including a win, in 12 career starts at the track.
No. 16 Greg Biffle: Biffle has been a top 10 driver the past 10 races at ACS. He will be fast again.
No. 14 Tony Stewart: Stewart has never won in 17 career starts at Fontana. He is due for a win at the track.
No. 2 Kurt Busch: Busch has been strong at ACS during his career. He has a win and six top five finishes in 15 career starts at the track. He won't have a problem finishing inside the top 10.
11 to 20
No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya: Montoya figured out how to setup and drive his car at Fontana last season. He is a great option.
No. 11 Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has three top 10 finishes in eight career starts at Fontana. He is a great third driver on most fantasy teams this weekend.
No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior has had decent success at Fontana during his career. He should crack the top 15.
No. 33 Clint Bowyer: Bowyer has never finished worse than 20th in eight career starts at Fontana. He is a great third driver on any fantasy team this weekend.
No. 31 Jeff Burton: Burton has run well in six of the past seven races at Fontana. We think he is a lock to finish inside the top 20.
No. 6 David Ragan: Ragan has finished inside the top 20 in all of his career starts at Fontana. This is a good weekend to sneak the No. 6 driver onto your roster.
No. 20 Joey Logano: Logano finished 14th in the October race at California last season. He will do well to match that finish on Sunday.
No. 83 Brian Vickers: Vickers has been very successful during his career at Fontana. He is solid pick.
No.56 Martin Truex Jr.: Truex looked great in two of the past five races at Fontana. He could crack the top 15 with a little luck.
No. 00 David Reutimann: Rudy has been fast in two of the past three trips to Fontana. He is a decent sleeper pick this weekend.
21 to 30
No. 29 Kevin Harvick: Harvick has been very average in six of the last nine races at Fontana. We are projecting him just barely outside the top 20 this weekend.
No. 1 Jamie McMurray: Mr. Daytona 500 has five top 10 finishes in 13 career starts at Fontana, but he hasn't cracked the top 10 in the past seven races at the track. His lack of recent success in his home-state bumps him out of our top 20.
No. 39 Ryan Newman: Newman has defined average in eight of his last nine starts at Fontana. This is a good weekend to take a pass on the Purdue Boilermaker.
No. 77 Sam Hornish Jr.: Hornish drove well at Fontana last season. He isn't a bad sleeper pick this weekend.
No. 47 Marcos Ambrose: Ambrose has struggled to crack the top 20 at ACS during his career. We don't think he will have enough speed to be anything but a fourth driver in fantasy leagues this weekend.
No. 12 Brad Keselowski: Keselowski has never made a Cup start at Fontana, but he has averaged a 12th place finish in five career Nationwide Series starts at the track. He should have no problem being the top rookie this weekend.
No. 44 A.J. Allmendinger: Allmendinger has had mixed results at Fontana during his career. He is a little too risky of a choice for our blood.
No. 19 Elliott Sadler: Fontana hasn't been good to Sadler since 2005. We wouldn't use him as anything but a fifth fantasy driver.
No. 98 Paul Menard: Menard has cracked the top 27 in four of his six career starts at Fontana. He will struggle to finish that well this weekend.
No. 71 Bobby Labonte: Labonte has cracked the top 30 in the past seven races at Fontana. We expect he will struggle to make it eight consecutive this weekend.
31 to 35
No. 26 Boris Said: Boris finished 30th in both of his previous starts at ACS. He will make the race, but isn't an option.
No. 7 Robby Gordon: Gordon is a California native, but he has just four top 20 finishes in 15 career starts at Fontana.
No. 82 Scott Speed: Speed had a decent run at Daytona. He could surprise this weekend.
No. 38 David Gilliland: California native Gilliland has done well in his previous trips to Fontana. He is a deep, deep, deep sleeper for those of you desperate for a driver no one else in your league will use.
No. 34 Travis Kvapil: Kvapil will unfortunately be a start-and-park driver for most of 2010.
Field Fillers
No. 90 Casey Mears
No. 87 Joe Nemechek
No. 37 Kevin Conway
No. 13 Max Papis
No. 78 Regan Smith
No. 09 Aric Almirola
No. 35 Johnny Sauter
No. 66 Dave Blaney
No. 55 Michael McDowell
No. 46 Terry Cook
Brownie's Picks
Top Four:
1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Carl Edwards
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Kyle Busch
Sleepers:
1. David Ragan
2. David Reutimann
Bust of the Week:
Jamie McMurray
Brian Brown
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series stops at Auto Club Speedway's two-mile oval for the second race of the 2010 season, the Auto Club 500. Brian Brown took a look at past performances, season trends, and spoke with NASCAR contacts to predict how the field should finish on Sunday.
When: Sunday, February 21, 2010 at 3:19 p.m./et.
Weather: Sunny with a daytime high around 62; wind out of the ENE at 3 mph. There is a zero percent chance of precipitation.
The Track: Auto Club Speedway
ACS is a two-mile long D-shaped oval. It has intermediate (14 degree) banking on the corners which allows for drivers to run their cars nearly wide-open the entire way around the track.
Key to Race: RUN WITH THE BIG DOGS OR GO HOME
This is a race that used to be won or lost in the wind tunnel, but with today's car is not as dependent on aerodynamic packages as the car driven a few years ago driver skill plays a greater factor in winning or losing. Judging from the last few races at the track, Sunday should be very competitive with Roush-Fenway, Gibbs, and Hendrick bringing the cars to beat.
Qualifying Procedures:
46 cars will attempt to qualify for 43 spots. Cars not in the top 35 in the final 2009 owner's points will have to qualify based on speed. Starting positions 1-43 will be determined during qualifying on Friday, February 19 at 6:40 pm/et.
Fantasy Cheat Sheet:
Top 5
No. 48 Jimmie Johnson: It is tough not to pick the native Californian. Johnson has won three of the last five races at the track he considers his home turf.
No. 99 Carl Edwards: Edwards has finished seventh or better in 10 of his 11 Cup starts at Fontana. He won the February 2008 race at the track and is one of our favorites to win again this weekend.
No. 24 Jeff Gordon: Gordon has three career wins at Fontana and had one of the best cars on the track in last season's races. He is a great choice.
No. 18 Kyle Busch: Busch has finished in the top 10 in eight of the past nine races at Fontana. He is a great fantasy pick on Sunday.
No. 5 Mark Martin: Martin has eight top 10 finishes in 17 career starts at Fontana. He will be strong again.
6 to 10
No. 17 Matt Kenseth: Kenseth won last year's winter race for his third career win at the track. He should finish in the top 10 again this weekend, but we don't see another win.
No. 9 Kasey Kahne: Kahne has been great at Fontana during his career. He has seven top 10 finishes, including a win, in 12 career starts at the track.
No. 16 Greg Biffle: Biffle has been a top 10 driver the past 10 races at ACS. He will be fast again.
No. 14 Tony Stewart: Stewart has never won in 17 career starts at Fontana. He is due for a win at the track.
No. 2 Kurt Busch: Busch has been strong at ACS during his career. He has a win and six top five finishes in 15 career starts at the track. He won't have a problem finishing inside the top 10.
11 to 20
No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya: Montoya figured out how to setup and drive his car at Fontana last season. He is a great option.
No. 11 Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has three top 10 finishes in eight career starts at Fontana. He is a great third driver on most fantasy teams this weekend.
No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior has had decent success at Fontana during his career. He should crack the top 15.
No. 33 Clint Bowyer: Bowyer has never finished worse than 20th in eight career starts at Fontana. He is a great third driver on any fantasy team this weekend.
No. 31 Jeff Burton: Burton has run well in six of the past seven races at Fontana. We think he is a lock to finish inside the top 20.
No. 6 David Ragan: Ragan has finished inside the top 20 in all of his career starts at Fontana. This is a good weekend to sneak the No. 6 driver onto your roster.
No. 20 Joey Logano: Logano finished 14th in the October race at California last season. He will do well to match that finish on Sunday.
No. 83 Brian Vickers: Vickers has been very successful during his career at Fontana. He is solid pick.
No.56 Martin Truex Jr.: Truex looked great in two of the past five races at Fontana. He could crack the top 15 with a little luck.
No. 00 David Reutimann: Rudy has been fast in two of the past three trips to Fontana. He is a decent sleeper pick this weekend.
21 to 30
No. 29 Kevin Harvick: Harvick has been very average in six of the last nine races at Fontana. We are projecting him just barely outside the top 20 this weekend.
No. 1 Jamie McMurray: Mr. Daytona 500 has five top 10 finishes in 13 career starts at Fontana, but he hasn't cracked the top 10 in the past seven races at the track. His lack of recent success in his home-state bumps him out of our top 20.
No. 39 Ryan Newman: Newman has defined average in eight of his last nine starts at Fontana. This is a good weekend to take a pass on the Purdue Boilermaker.
No. 77 Sam Hornish Jr.: Hornish drove well at Fontana last season. He isn't a bad sleeper pick this weekend.
No. 47 Marcos Ambrose: Ambrose has struggled to crack the top 20 at ACS during his career. We don't think he will have enough speed to be anything but a fourth driver in fantasy leagues this weekend.
No. 12 Brad Keselowski: Keselowski has never made a Cup start at Fontana, but he has averaged a 12th place finish in five career Nationwide Series starts at the track. He should have no problem being the top rookie this weekend.
No. 44 A.J. Allmendinger: Allmendinger has had mixed results at Fontana during his career. He is a little too risky of a choice for our blood.
No. 19 Elliott Sadler: Fontana hasn't been good to Sadler since 2005. We wouldn't use him as anything but a fifth fantasy driver.
No. 98 Paul Menard: Menard has cracked the top 27 in four of his six career starts at Fontana. He will struggle to finish that well this weekend.
No. 71 Bobby Labonte: Labonte has cracked the top 30 in the past seven races at Fontana. We expect he will struggle to make it eight consecutive this weekend.
31 to 35
No. 26 Boris Said: Boris finished 30th in both of his previous starts at ACS. He will make the race, but isn't an option.
No. 7 Robby Gordon: Gordon is a California native, but he has just four top 20 finishes in 15 career starts at Fontana.
No. 82 Scott Speed: Speed had a decent run at Daytona. He could surprise this weekend.
No. 38 David Gilliland: California native Gilliland has done well in his previous trips to Fontana. He is a deep, deep, deep sleeper for those of you desperate for a driver no one else in your league will use.
No. 34 Travis Kvapil: Kvapil will unfortunately be a start-and-park driver for most of 2010.
Field Fillers
No. 90 Casey Mears
No. 87 Joe Nemechek
No. 37 Kevin Conway
No. 13 Max Papis
No. 78 Regan Smith
No. 09 Aric Almirola
No. 35 Johnny Sauter
No. 66 Dave Blaney
No. 55 Michael McDowell
No. 46 Terry Cook
Brownie's Picks
Top Four:
1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Carl Edwards
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Kyle Busch
Sleepers:
1. David Ragan
2. David Reutimann
Bust of the Week:
Jamie McMurray
